Unsustainable

December 7, 2023
The U.S. federal government officially ran a $1.7 trillion budget deficit in fiscal 2023, which ended in September. The accounting around the timing and amount of student loan forgiveness programs understated what was actually a cash deficit of $2 trillion (Chart 1). Either of the...
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2023 Snapshots

August 28, 2023
Lyell Wealth Management invests substantial resources in proprietary research in order to distinguish real economic and market data from the narratives pushed by the advertising-driven financial media. We periodically publish a Snapshots issue that compiles charts and tables that we think are interesting and relevant....
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Rearview Mirror

May 10, 2023
The Federal Reserve (“Fed”) has a dual mandate for maximum employment and price stability. It seeks to achieve these goals through monetary policy by controlling short-term interest rates and money supply. Achieving these two objectives is complicated by the reality that non-monetary factors, such as...
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What’s New

January 30, 2023
COVID and its economic dislocations, government policy responses, and their after-effects continue to materially alter the global landscape. While Lyell Wealth Management sees some pre-existing investment themes as enduring, such as cloud computing and healthcare advancements, some different industries and asset classes are likely to...
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2022 Snapshots

September 16, 2022
Lyell Wealth Management invests substantial resources in proprietary research in order to distinguish real economic and market data from the narratives pushed by the sensationalist financial media. We periodically publish a Snapshots issue that compiles charts and tables that we think are interesting and relevant....
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Panic at the Fed?

June 24, 2022
We are now eight months into the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive financial tightening campaign in decades. While the first policy hikes took place in March 2022, financial markets have been moving since Fed Chairman Jerome Powell began telegraphing interest rate hikes last November. On June...
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Whip Inflation Now?

February 1, 2022
In 1974, President Gerald Ford responded to an inflation crisis by asking the American people to “grow more food, waste less, drive less, and heat less” to get prices under control. This national voluntary effort to Whip Inflation Now “WIN” failed miserably, and Alan Greenspan...
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Living With Covid

September 20, 2021
The global economy and markets navigated a rocky summer of accelerated Covid-19 infections despite widespread vaccinations in much of the developed world. The re-opening has been more modest than anticipated in the late spring, and predictions of a modern “Roaring Twenties” have at the least...
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Re-Opening

May 14, 2021
The successful vaccine rollout has enabled a gradual re-opening across the United States and other parts of the developed world. A combination of money growth, wealth effect, robust earnings and monetary and fiscal stimulus is a powerful cocktail for economic growth and strong markets. The...
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2021 Snapshots

January 10, 2021
The global economy had a massive shock in early 2020 when the Covid pandemic erupted and shutdowns ensued. Despite a big rebound, U.S. real GDP was still 3.4% below its peak as of the end of September. To put this economic hit in perspective, the...
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